Eleven days have passed since the American‑Israeli attack on Iran. I wrote here about the mixed feelings I had at the beginning. And now, after almost two weeks, it is becoming increasingly clear that at least the American side did not—and still does not—have a clear idea of what it actually wants to achieve with this operation.
The very first day brought spectacular results. These, however, were achieved mainly by the Israelis, who with a single strike eliminated practically the entire leadership, including Ayatollah Khamenei and the top ranks of the army. The Americans, on the other hand, hit a girls’ school, where a single strike killed 175 children.
Trump initially declared that he sought nothing less than the unconditional surrender of the Iranian regime. He also spoke about the need to change it and about arming the Kurds, who were supposed to help overthrow it. But once it became clear that the ayatollahs would not give up and began attacking neighboring countries, American demands shifted from regime change to replacing the leadership with a more moderate and cooperative one, following the Venezuelan model.
The American‑Israeli coalition managed to destroy a significant portion of ballistic missile launch sites and a number of other military facilities, including most of the Iranian navy. The Iranians, meanwhile, deployed their cheap Shahed drones, which managed to disable at least one THAAD radar. That system costs up to one billion dollars, while the drones cost only a fraction of that. As a result, defense costs are rising sharply and currently amount to around one billion dollars per day.
On top of that, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a complete halt, along with the export of oil and gas, which is driving fuel prices up worldwide. Stock markets are falling. The problems in air travel go without saying. Trump, meanwhile, has abandoned the idea of involving the Kurds. At times he signals a willingness to negotiate, and at other times he threatens Iran with apocalyptic destruction.
American strategic bombers B‑1 and B‑52 have meanwhile arrived at the British RAF Fairford base. The Iranian regime appears determined, which was confirmed by the election of Khamenei’s son, who is even more radical than his father and confidently declares that Iran will have the final word.
And when Trump was asked at a press conference why he attacked Iran in the first place, he replied that his son‑in‑law Jared Kushner and real estate magnate Steve Witkoff told him that Iran was preparing an attack on the United States. I have the feeling that as Trump finds himself increasingly trapped by his own incompetence, the phase of looking for scapegoats will soon begin. My bet is on the tried‑and‑tested duo of Biden & Obama.