Under the pretext of drug trafficking, Trump seized the world’s largest oil reserves over the weekend.**
His concern for the interests of Venezuelan citizens extends only as far as ensuring safe extraction and export of oil by American companies. He will undoubtedly use the regime change to increase deportations of Venezuelan citizens from the U.S. back to their homeland. And what might be the consequences for other countries?
Russia
With the fall of Assad and now the ousting of Maduro, Putin has lost another significant ally. Back in 2019, Trump’s advisor on Russia and Europe, Fiona Hill, testified under oath before U.S. lawmakers that the Russians had offered Trump a deal: Trump would keep Venezuela, and in return, Russia—with U.S. approval—would occupy Ukraine. If Putin was still considering this possibility, it is now definitively buried. The Americans will also seize Russian weapons systems left behind in Venezuela. That’s another piece of bad news for Putin. And thirdly, the U.S. will now control more than half of the world’s oil reserves. Analysts expect that the U.S. will increase production, which will lead to a drop in global prices. Russia is already selling its oil at around $50 per barrel, which is near the break-even point. If prices fall further due to increased production, it will be a fatal blow to the Russian economy.
Cuba
The fall of Maduro’s regime is also bad news for Cuba, which was critically dependent on Venezuelan oil. Trump has thus gained a powerful lever over this communist relic as well.
China
The United States has sent a clear signal to China not to expand its sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere. Panama, with its strategic canal, withdrew from China’s global development and infrastructure strategy (BRI) earlier this year following pressure from the U.S. administration. The question now is to what extent the loss of influence in Latin America might embolden China to consolidate its power closer to home. This concerns not only a few disputed archipelagos but above all Taiwan.
The removal of the authoritarian Maduro may bring relief to the vast majority of Venezuelans.
We may also welcome the negative impact on other authoritarian regimes. But from the perspective of international law, it is a disaster. If Trump decides to occupy Greenland tomorrow, no one will be able to stop him.